In a discussion with Matt Cunningham, an economist at FocusEconomics, the key forces that shaped oil and gas markets in 2025 and the outlook for 2026 were examined. The conversation explored how economic fundamentals, policy decisions, and geopolitical developments influenced movements in crude oil and natural gas prices, highlighting the diverging paths of the two commodities. The discussion also looked ahead to next year, addressing supply and demand expectations, LNG capacity, and the geopolitical risks that will continue to define global energy markets.

What were the key economic, fundamental, or geopolitical factors that shaped oil and gas prices in 2025, and which are likely to dominate in 2026?

Cunningham said that the Brent crude price chart this year can be seen as a visual summary of the defining market events of 2025.

Throughout the year, prices continued the downward trend that began in April of the previous year, as OPEC+ persisted with output increases while the Chinese economy struggled under the weight of a weak property sector, subdued consumer confidence, high local government debt, and slowing external demand.

In addition, the “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump pushed prices to levels from which they never fully recovered, apart from a temporary spike in June driven by the 12-day war between Iran and Israel.

Since then, Brent prices have continued to decline after OPEC+ surprised the market with aggressive production increases aimed at reclaiming market share from non-OPEC producers.

Natural gas followed a different path. While prices were initially hit by the tariff announcement, the broader 2025 story diverged sharply from oil. Prices moved higher, with the US benchmark Henry Hub reaching its highest level in nearly three years.

Trump’s election as US president provided support for US gas prices, as he moved quickly to accelerate approvals for liquefied natural gas exports. This led to a surge in LNG shipments this year to record levels.

Looking ahead to 2026, FocusEconomics expects the main trends of 2025 to persist:

Average Brent crude prices are projected to fall to their lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.

US natural gas prices are expected to rise to their highest annual average since 2014, excluding the 2022 spike linked to the Russia–Ukraine war.

OPEC+ is expected to continue raising output after a temporary pause in the first quarter of 2026, while global growth is likely to slow as the effects of front-loaded exports ahead of US tariffs fade.

Supply-side uncertainty was a major theme in 2025. How do OPEC+ production decisions affect the outlook for next year?

Global oil and gas production is expected to increase in 2026.

Institutions such as the US Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency have raised their forecasts in recent months, reflecting faster OPEC+ supply increases and strong growth in demand for US LNG.

The key question is not whether production will rise, but by how much.

Internal frictions within OPEC+ are likely to persist. Russia may prefer lower output levels given US sanctions, while countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to push for higher production, supported by spare capacity and a desire to regain market share from producers outside the alliance.

At the same time, countries such as Kazakhstan and Iraq continue to exceed their production quotas, while Angola exited the group in late 2023 after disputes over permitted output levels.

On the demand side, do you see global consumption growth approaching a plateau, or is the market still underestimating Asian demand strength in 2026?

Global demand for oil and gas is likely to rise next year.

FocusEconomics expects global oil output to grow by 1.1 percent in 2026, driven by higher production in non-OPEC+ countries such as Guyana and the United States.

Natural gas demand is also expected to increase. The International Energy Agency estimates growth of around 2 percent, pushing consumption to a record level, supported by rising demand from industry and power generation.

Asia remains highly dependent on LNG. The agency projects regional gas demand to rise by more than 4 percent in 2026, with LNG imports increasing by around 10 percent.

These projections could change quickly if the global economy or the energy sector faces new shocks, which is why continuous monitoring of updated forecasts remains essential.

Several major LNG projects have come online or are advancing. How will new capacity, particularly from the United States and Qatar, affect global gas prices in 2026?

Large-scale projects in Qatar and the United States are expected to contribute to a convergence in global gas prices. Forecasts suggest that the relative gap between US gas prices, which are typically lower due to abundant domestic supply, and prices in Asia and Europe will narrow to its smallest level since 2020, when demand collapsed during the pandemic.

In short, record US LNG shipments are expected to lift domestic prices while putting downward pressure on prices abroad.

Unlike oil, gas markets exhibit much wider regional price disparities due to transportation constraints. Oil can be shipped directly, while gas must be liquefied before being transported across oceans. Expanding LNG capacity should help reduce these regional price gaps.

Geopolitically, 2025 saw volatility linked to the Middle East, Russia, and West Africa. Which regions represent the greatest risk or opportunity for supply stability in 2026?

Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine will be a critical factor to watch. Donald Trump has pushed for a peace agreement without success and has repeatedly threatened to withdraw support for Ukraine.

If such threats were carried out, Europe and Ukraine would struggle to withstand Russia on their own, potentially leading to a peace deal favorable to Moscow. This, in turn, could result in the lifting of sanctions on Russia’s oil sector, boosting global supply and exerting downward pressure on oil prices.

The end of 2025 was brutal. More than $1.2 trillion in market value evaporated from the cryptocurrency market in just six weeks. Bitcoin (BTC) lost over 30% of its value, slipping below $82,000 amid a sharp liquidity vacuum.

Leveraged positions were liquidated, ETF outflows accelerated, and passive funds pulled capital simultaneously.

But the current landscape looks different. Panic has faded, leaving behind a more disciplined and focused market. Prices are recovering, albeit slowly, yet the underlying driver this time appears more robust.

Liquidity: where everything begins

The most severe recent blow did not stem from retail panic, but from purely mechanical forces. Business Insider reported that $19 billion in positions were liquidated in a single day, the largest such event in crypto history. As institutions rushed to de-risk, the market was left without any buffer.

At the same time, major central banks are approaching the end of their tightening cycles. Inflation is easing, growth is slowing, and rate cuts have already begun. Historically, Bitcoin tends to perform best when liquidity improves and interest rates decline, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC falls.

Supply: quietly tightening

The full impact of the 2024 halving is now clearly visible. Miners are receiving half the previous rewards, prompting many to scale back operations or consolidate.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data show that Bitcoin exchange reserves are at their lowest levels since 2018. Coins are simply not moving the way they used to.

A large share of supply is effectively locked away in long-term wallets, ETFs, and corporate treasuries. On-chain data suggest that active supply is scarce. While a full supply shock has not yet materialized, the market is moving closer to one.

Demand: still present, but at a slower pace

ETF inflows stalled in the final quarter of 2025, but they did not collapse, an important shift compared with previous cycles. More than $50 billion flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past year, and most of that capital has remained in the market.

Asset managers increasingly view Bitcoin as a strategic allocation rather than a short-term trade.

Then there is Strategy, which still holds more than 430,000 Bitcoin and recently raised $1.4 billion in cash. According to JPMorgan analysis, as long as the company is not forced to sell and its market value to net asset value multiple (mNAV) remains above 1, it could act as a stabilizing pillar for the market.

Added to this is the upcoming MSCI decision in January, which will determine whether companies with heavy crypto exposure remain included in major indices. This represents a structural factor with meaningful market implications.

2026 outlook

There is no full consensus, but most credible forecasts place Bitcoin in a $120,000 to $170,000 range. This view is anchored in ETF flows, tightening supply, and improving liquidity conditions.

Fundstrat takes a far more aggressive stance, projecting prices above $400,000. JPMorgan’s volatility-adjusted model, benchmarked against gold, suggests that $170,000 could be achievable if Bitcoin continues to attract capital in a manner similar to commodities, particularly gold.

However, almost no one is pricing in outright euphoria. The prevailing view is for a gradual, measured advance rather than a parabolic surge.

Key risks

ETF outflows could return quickly if the macroeconomic backdrop deteriorates.

The Bybit hack served as a reminder that security remains a weak point, with Decrypt reporting losses of $1.4 billion from a hot wallet breach.

If MSCI were to exclude companies such as Strategy, the market could face negative passive outflows of up to $2.8 billion.

Technical analysis: a corrective phase into late 2026?

From the 2022 low near $16,500 to the 2025 peak around $126,000, Bitcoin appears to have completed a five-wave advance under Elliott Wave theory. If this framework holds, a move below $108,000 by year-end could mark the beginning of a more extended correction.

Under Elliott theory, post-five-wave corrections typically unfold in three phases: a decline (A), a rebound (B), followed by a deeper pullback (C). If this scenario plays out, Bitcoin could remain under pressure until mid-2026. Key potential support levels lie near $84,000, $70,000, and $58,000.

Conclusion: a more resilient market, but with two possible paths

Bitcoin enters 2026 with a more mature market structure: improving liquidity, constrained supply, and institutional demand that has not disappeared. These factors provide a foundation for renewed strength if conditions remain supportive.

At the same time, the recent breakdown and the possibility that a major bullish cycle has already been completed leave the door open to a longer corrective phase.

Whether Bitcoin is headed for another leg higher or has already seen its peak, the next phase will be driven more by underlying mechanics than by speculative sentiment.

From artificial intelligence bubbles to a surge in government spending, and from real estate downturns to oil price spikes, these factors are likely to be among the most influential forces shaping global markets in 2026, whether negatively or positively.

1. The bursting of the artificial intelligence bubble

US technology companies fail to generate tangible commercial returns from artificial intelligence, raising questions about the logic behind massive investments in hardware, software, and related sectors. Technology stocks fall sharply, hitting the top 20% of income earners in the United States, who hold the largest share of domestically owned US equities.

After these wealth gains had supported consumer spending growth over the past two years, at a time when the bottom 60% of the population struggled, the erosion of household wealth leads to weaker consumption in 2026.

Investment in artificial intelligence also declines sharply, putting pressure on the construction and capital investment sectors, which are estimated to have contributed around one percentage point to US economic growth in 2025, and even less once imported equipment is excluded. This pullback alone would be enough to push the US labor market into a full recession.

Impact: The United States enters a recession, with Europe affected to a lesser extent. The Federal Reserve is forced to cut interest rates at a much faster pace.

2. Congress approves “tariff rebates” ahead of the midterm elections

Fiscal policy represents one of the key upside risks to growth and inflation in 2026. President Donald Trump pressures Congress to issue $2,000 checks to 150 million Americans under the label of “tariff refunds,” reviving memories of the pandemic-era stimulus packages that helped ignite inflation.

Although the math does not fully align, and tariffs have already been used to justify the so-called “big, beautiful bill,” political pressure could intensify as the November midterm elections approach.

While such measures could help the bottom 60% of US consumers struggling with high living costs, a large portion of the funds may be used to pay down debt, limiting the overall impact on growth compared with 2020–2021.

Impact: Stronger US growth and higher inflation. The Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish stance, depending on the degree of political influence over monetary policy decisions.

3. Inflation returns due to AI-related supply bottlenecks

Many economists, particularly the more dovish voices within the Federal Reserve, expect artificial intelligence to deliver a major productivity boost that would help lower inflation. But what if this assumption proves wrong?

In the short term, massive investment in AI infrastructure could crowd out other economic activity. Data centers are expected to account for around 10% of US electricity demand by 2030, placing growing strain on power grids worldwide and increasing the risk of outages and higher prices.

At the same time, rising investment needs could create fresh supply shortages, especially as immigration rules tighten in the United States and Europe, potentially pushing wage growth higher once again.

Impact: Higher global inflation and a shift by central banks toward raising interest rates.

4. President Trump cuts tariffs as their negative effects intensify

There are two possible paths for a decline in the current average US tariff rate of around 16%. The first is a pre-election decision by the administration to reduce tariffs, as it recently did for some food products.

While lower tariff revenues would complicate efforts to secure congressional approval for “tariff rebate” schemes, the president could ultimately roll back trade barriers to ease pressure on consumer prices.

The second path would involve a Supreme Court ruling that tariffs imposed under emergency powers are unlawful, which would invalidate most country-level tariffs. The president could respond by turning to other tools, such as Section 122, which allows temporary tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days, but the outcome would be far more chaotic.

Impact: Faster growth and lower inflation, with the Federal Reserve viewing the growth impulse as dominant and slowing the pace of US rate cuts.

5. European consumers begin to spend more freely

The euro area savings rate stands at around 15%, roughly three percentage points above its pre-Covid average, and saving intentions remain elevated.

However, after rebuilding savings following the 2022 energy crisis, and with inflation stabilizing near 2%, consumers may begin to spend more aggressively in 2026, particularly if governments succeed in reducing uncertainty around pension policies.

Impact: Euro area growth rises above trend, exceeding 1.5% annually, prompting the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in late 2026.

6. Deteriorating US–China relations disrupt rare earth supplies

Tensions between Washington and Beijing eased after a direct meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping resulted in a 12-month truce, implying stable tariffs and export restrictions through most of 2026.

However, the truce remains fragile, and any miscalculation could derail it. In the absence of restraint, non-tariff measures such as restrictions on rare earth exports could be imposed.

Impact: Direct fallout for the semiconductor, automotive, and defense sectors, with potential shortages and price increases that feed into inflation.

7. A surge in oil prices driven by renewed geopolitical tensions

The biggest upside risk to oil prices remains linked to Russian supply, amid US sanctions and ongoing Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure.

While it is widely assumed that Russian oil will continue to find ways around sanctions, greater-than-expected effectiveness could shrink the surplus expected in 2026, posing upside risks to the current Brent crude forecast of $57 per barrel.

Developments involving the United States and Venezuela add further uncertainty, alongside the fragility of the ceasefire in Gaza, which could revive supply risks from the Middle East.

Impact: Slower global growth and higher inflation, with central banks inclined to raise rates or slow the pace of easing.

8. Fiscal stress as bond investors lose confidence

So far, investors have been surprisingly tolerant of the US fiscal deficit trajectory, supported by economic uncertainty and lower interest rates. However, US public finances remain fragile, with the deficit expected to stay in the 6–7% range.

Investor concerns over the scale of debt issuance could intensify, particularly if fiscal expansion coincides with accommodative monetary policy and renewed inflation fears.

Europe is not immune, as pressures could spread from France amid rising spending demands, especially on defense. Bond yields could rise sharply, with the economic outcome depending on central bank responses: a return to quantitative easing, or forced fiscal tightening.

Impact: Painful cuts to government spending, particularly in Europe, and weaker growth.

9. China slips into a deeper slowdown as the property correction intensifies

After stabilizing in early 2025, property prices resumed a faster decline from mid-year. Inventories remain high, and real estate investment continues to weigh heavily on growth.

Default concerns resurfaced after Vanke requested an extension on a bond repayment. Despite supportive policies in 2024, momentum faded in 2025, with growing calls to allow the cycle to run its course, a stance that could carry serious risks.

Impact: Erosion of household wealth, deterioration in bank asset quality, and entrenched pessimism that undermines the shift toward consumption-led growth.

10. The Ukraine war ends with a comprehensive and lasting peace deal

If peace negotiations succeed, the economic impact will depend on how unresolved issues such as territorial recognition are handled, and on the durability of the ceasefire.

In an optimistic scenario, reconstruction efforts could lift economic activity and sentiment in Eastern Europe. Lower energy prices, depending on sanctions relief, could also support global consumption.

However, energy analysts note that Russian oil supplies have not declined significantly in recent years, limiting the impact on the global supply balance, though supply risks would diminish. The gas market would see a larger effect if Europe resumed purchases of Russian gas.

Impact: Lower energy prices boost global growth, potentially prompting some central banks, including the Bank of England, to adopt a more accommodative stance than expected.

As 2025 prepares to close its financial books, speculation about the year ahead is already echoing loudly across global markets. Robert Kiyosaki, the well-known financial author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, has issued a striking forecast for silver, suggesting its price could surge to $200 an ounce in 2026.

Kiyosaki strongly warned against holding cash, arguing that it could lose a significant portion of its value amid rising inflationary pressures and growing global economic risks.

His comments followed silver’s recent record-breaking rally, as the white metal continues to register historic levels after surpassing the $70-per-ounce threshold for the first time ever.

Throughout 2025, silver is on track to record the largest annual gain in its history, posting an extraordinary rise of nearly 150% since the beginning of the year.

This exceptional performance has been driven by massive industrial demand and a chronic global supply deficit, placing silver at the top of this year’s most profitable assets.

More broadly, precious metals markets have undergone notable shifts in recent months as the global economy approaches a different monetary and financial phase. Price movements in gold and silver are no longer merely reflections of inflation or interest rate policy, but rather a mirror of deeper structural changes within the global financial system.

Against this backdrop, attention is once again turning toward 2026, as speculation intensifies over silver’s ability to extend its rally toward unprecedented levels, with growing talk of a potential move toward $200 an ounce.

These expectations are largely based on the likelihood that the structural factors behind silver’s explosive 2025 rally will persist and possibly intensify, which will be examined in detail in the following sections of this report.

Robert Kiyosaki’s Outlook

“Silver above $70… great news for investors and shocking for savers.” With these words, Robert Kiyosaki opened his posts on the X platform, commenting on silver’s move to historic levels.

Kiyosaki said that silver’s rise above $70 is great news for precious metals investors, but bad news for those who still believe saving cash is a safe way to protect wealth.

He renewed his warning about an upcoming inflationary wave that could erode purchasing power, especially that of the US dollar, saying he fears that silver reaching $70 is an early warning of hyperinflation over the next five years, alongside the continued erosion of the “fake dollar.”

In a direct call to shift toward real assets, the financial author added that investors should not side with the losers, arguing that while the dollar continues to lose purchasing power, silver could head toward levels approaching $200 an ounce by 2026.

These statements represent a form of validation for Kiyosaki’s earlier view, as he had predicted in recent months that silver would reach $70 before the end of 2025, a forecast that has now materialized.

Kiyosaki believes silver remains “the best investment opportunity of all time,” describing it as an ideal vehicle for wealth preservation and exceptional returns amid global economic disarray.

Price Overview

Silver managed to break a historic barrier last October, surpassing its previous record high of $49.76 an ounce, which was set in April 2011.

Since that breakout, the white metal entered a powerful rally that continued to post unprecedented record highs, culminating in an all-time peak of $72.71 an ounce during trading on Wednesday, December 24, 2025.

From the beginning of the year to date, silver prices have climbed by roughly 150%, putting the metal on track for its largest annual gain ever.

Bullish Drivers

While the world was watching gold reach new highs, silver delivered one of the biggest surprises of the year, generating gains that stunned markets. This price explosion was fueled by a combination of structural crises and investment opportunities that converged during 2025, restoring silver’s status as a strategic metal. Below are the key factors that made 2025 the year of silver.

Retail Investors

This year saw unprecedented demand from retail traders and individual investors for physical silver in the form of bars and coins.

This surge came after silver remained undervalued for a prolonged period relative to gold’s record-breaking advances, making silver bullion a more attractive and cost-effective option for investors seeking protection from the erosion of fiat currency purchasing power.

Strong Industrial Demand

Silver has cemented its role as a critical component in future technologies. Industrial demand reached historic highs in 2025 due to massive expansion in solar panel manufacturing and the electric vehicle sector.

This was compounded by silver’s essential role in artificial intelligence infrastructure, sectors that consume large quantities exceeding what is currently available in the market.

Global Supply Deficit

The supply crisis deepened as the market entered a fifth consecutive year of structural deficits. Declining output from major silver mines and depleted global inventories have made it impossible for supply to keep pace with surging demand, pushing prices toward unprecedented levels.

Global Monetary Policy Trends

The year 2025 marked a turning point in global monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve and major central banks continued implementing interest rate cuts.

This shift reduced the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, encouraging investment funds to inject substantial liquidity into gold and silver markets.

Additional Factors Supporting the Rally

Safe-haven demand intensified amid rising global political tensions throughout 2025, driving capital flows toward precious metals as protection against economic volatility.

The decline in the US dollar, driven by interest rate cuts, increased silver’s appeal to international buyers, as lower dollar prices boosted global demand.

Media-driven expectations and bold forecasts by prominent analysts also played a key role in attracting public attention to silver, transforming predictions into a self-reinforcing buying force before the end of the year.

Silver Outperforms Gold

Spot silver rose by about 150% this year, far exceeding gold’s gains of more than 70%, supported by strong investment demand, its inclusion on the US critical minerals list, and aggressive buying by major funds.

Views and Analysis

Suki Cooper, analyst at Standard Chartered, said that inflows into silver exchange-traded products exceeded 4,000 metric tons.

Analysts at Mitsubishi said that momentum and fundamentals support further gains, although elevated long positions and lower year-end liquidity could trigger volatility, as traders buy on dips while real yields remain low and physical supply constrained.

They added that silver is already in technically overbought territory, noting that it now takes just 64 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold, down from 105 ounces in April.

Rona O’Connell, analyst at StoneX, said that some traders will certainly focus on the gold-to-silver ratio, but beyond that, once current tensions ease, prices may decouple and silver is likely to underperform.

Zain Vawda, analyst at OANDA Market Pulse, said that expectations for interest rate cuts have increased following the latest US inflation and labor market data, supporting demand for precious metals.

Vawda added that safe-haven demand is also expected to remain strong amid Middle East tensions, uncertainty over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, and recent US actions against Venezuelan oil tankers.

Bullish Outlook for 2026

Forecasts for 2026 vary among major financial institutions between cautious optimism and strong bullishness. While most do not go as far as Robert Kiyosaki’s $200 target, they broadly agree that silver is likely to remain on an upward trajectory. Below are some of the key institutional forecasts for silver in 2026.

Goldman Sachs

The bank’s analysts see silver as the primary strategic metal of the green transition and expect average prices in 2026 to range between $85 and $100 an ounce.

Their outlook is based on rising demand from artificial intelligence technologies and solar panels, with the bank arguing that the structural supply deficit will make sustained moves below $70 increasingly difficult.

UBS

The Swiss bank expects silver to continue outperforming gold in 2026, targeting levels around $95 an ounce.

This view is based on expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates, weakening the dollar and encouraging large investment funds to increase their silver holdings.

Citi

Citi has raised its silver outlook, pointing to a potential move toward $110 an ounce in the second half of 2026.

The bank believes that explosive demand from the electric vehicle sector could exceed all prior estimates, potentially leading to an acute shortage of physical silver available for immediate delivery.

The Silver Institute

In its forward-looking report, the Silver Institute did not specify a price target but warned that the gap between supply and demand could reach critical levels in 2026.

It noted that prices above $120 an ounce may be required either to incentivize mine output growth or to encourage investors to sell holdings to meet industrial demand.

Commerzbank

The German bank adopts a more conservative stance, expecting prices to stabilize around $80 to $85 an ounce.

It cautioned that the rapid gains seen in 2025 could trigger widespread profit-taking early in 2026 before prices resume their upward trend.